Orthodoxy restored at a 50% policy rate; the lead is liability management, not rescue.
Layer one — macro, structured
as of Jul 2026CPI YoY
33.6%
disinflating
Policy rate
50.00%
one-week repo
USD/TRY
41.2
was 13.5
Parallel prem.
~0%
no meaningful gap
Reserves
$158b
gross, rebuilt
Sov. spread
255bp
over UST
Layer one — regulatory, unstructured
- Jun 2023Return to conventional policy; sharp rate normalisationCBRT statement
- 2024FX-protected deposit scheme wound downCBRT / BRSA
- 2024Selective credit growth caps on TRY lendingBRSA decision
- 2026Minimum wage and severance ceiling resetOfficial gazette
USD/TRYJan 22 → Sep 25
41.213.5
Jan 22Sep 25
Indicative monthly path reconstructed for illustration — pin exact fixes to central bank data before client use.
Covered names — by market capitalisation
2 names · drill into a name for its exposure vector| Ticker | Name | Sector | Mkt cap (USD bn) | Net exposure | Status | Leads |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BIMAS | BİM Birleşik Mağazalar | Retail | 11.2 | -0.31 | ACT ON WINDOW | 4 |
| TUPRS | Tüpraş | Energy | 9.8 | +0.18 | MONITOR | 3 |