Layer two — exposure vector, eight coefficients
hover for source in filingsLCY revenue shareLow — USD coal sales
Segment note− hedge
Export shareDominant, Asia buyers
Revenue by destination− hedge
Trapped cashHigh — retention rules
Cash restrictions note+ stress
FX-denominated debtUSD facilities
Debt noteneutral
Import content of COGSFuel and equipment
Procurement disclosure+ stress
Inventory + rcv daysShort, cargo-linked
Working capital schedules− hedge
Wage baseRegional minimum wage
Employment note+ stress
Intercompany vs externalSubsidiary chain
Related-party noteneutral
Sign convention matters as much as magnitude — an exporter with hard-currency receivables gains from the same move that destroys an importer.
Layer three — diagnosis
Dollar revenue with a rupiah cost base is a natural hedge, but 100% export-proceeds retention for twelve months converts that revenue into onshore restricted cash. The lead is liquidity structure, not hedging.
Country signal in force
CPI YoY
2.7%
Policy rate
5.25%
USD/IDR
16,450
Parallel prem.
n/a
Reserves
$150b
Sov. spread
88bp
Ranked lead set
4- 01Every cargoOnshore retention account structure
Compliant DHE SDA accounts with yield and permitted-use drawdown.
TTSAnnuity - 02NowWorking capital against restricted balances
Onshore facility collateralised by retained proceeds.
BankingLarge - 03Mandate deadlineDownstreaming capex financing
Fund the smelter and processing mandate.
Banking / ECALargest ticket - 04MonthlyIDR/USD hedging
Cover the rupiah cost leg against dollar receipts.
MarketsRecurring
Timing is the product: the pitch is strongest at computable moments — the quarter a coefficient breaches a threshold, and the month the policy window reopens.