Layer two — exposure vector, eight coefficients
hover for source in filingsSign convention matters as much as magnitude — an exporter with hard-currency receivables gains from the same move that destroys an importer.
Layer three — diagnosis
One hundred percent naira revenue funded by a hard-currency intercompany loan book. The float and the second devaluation drove revaluation losses large enough to push the entity into negative equity while it was still generating operating profit. This is a denomination problem, not a trading one — which makes it a banking product.
Country signal in force
Ranked lead set
6- 01Window opened with the easing cycleNaira refinancing of the parent loan
CP programme on FMDQ or a syndicated naira facility to retire the USD intercompany debt. Removes the mismatch at source.
DCM + BankingLargest ticket - 02Unlocks lead 1Capital structure advisory
Convert residual parent debt to equity to restore the balance sheet and local borrowing capacity.
AdvisoryFee - 03Multi-yearDistributor finance programme
Finance the distributor network being squeezed by 27% funding costs; receivables and volumes protected.
TTSStickiest annuity - 04Post lead 1FX hedging programme
Forwards and NDFs on the residual import payable book once the debt mismatch is closed.
MarketsRecurring - 05ContinuousImport LCs and duty financing
Against the dollarised input basket, with Form M and PAAR handling built in.
TTS TradeFlow - 06H2Dividend and royalty repatriation
Execution once distributable reserves rebuild.
TTSFlow
Timing is the product: the pitch is strongest at computable moments — the quarter a coefficient breaches a threshold, and the month the policy window reopens.