March 2024 devaluation plus import-clearance backlog; trapped cash is the loudest coefficient.
Layer one — macro, structured
as of Aug 2026CPI YoY
26.4%
off a 38% peak
Policy rate
27.25%
corridor mid
USD/EGP
48.6
was 15.7
Parallel prem.
+2%
narrowed post-float
Reserves
$46.4b
post-Ras El Hekma
Sov. spread
610bp
over UST
Layer one — regulatory, unstructured
- Mar 2024Devaluation and move to a flexible rateCBE statement
- 2023–24ACID / Nafeza pre-registration enforcementCustoms decree
- Jan 2026Profit and dividend transfer queue cleared in tranchesCBE circular
- Mid 2026Industrial licensing and tariff exclusions revisedMinisterial decision
USD/EGP, officialJan 22 → Sep 25
49.115.7
Jan 22Sep 25
Indicative monthly path reconstructed for illustration — pin exact fixes to central bank data before client use.
Covered names — by market capitalisation
3 names · drill into a name for its exposure vector| Ticker | Name | Sector | Mkt cap (USD bn) | Net exposure | Status | Leads |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COMI | Commercial International Bank | Financials | 6.2 | +0.14 | MONITOR | 3 |
| TMGH | Talaat Moustafa Group | Real estate | 3.1 | -0.08 | WATCH | 3 |
| EAST | Eastern Company SAE | Consumer | 1.4 | -0.44 | ACT ON WINDOW | 4 |